Log in using the username and password we sent you
Lost your password?
Question: How do you predict how many people will get ill each year?
Asked by 847epdj46 to Liz on 15 Jun 2017.
answered on 15 Jun 2017:
For my work on norovirus, we use data (information) about how many people got ill last year, information about how long people are ill for on average with norovirus and how long they are immune for once they’ve had it, and a mathematical model.
christldonnelly commented on 16 Jun 2017:
I work on outbreaks that don’t necessarily happen every year (luckily for us). With Ebola in West Africa, for example, we look at how the numbers of new cases each day are going up or down (or even staying stable) in a particular area and we can extrapolate that trend, taking into account the number of people that live in the area and are susceptible to the disease.
You can see some projections we did for Ebola here: See figure 4 of http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100#t=article
Log in to Reply
Kevin commented on 16 Jun 2017:
We know that certain individuals are more susceptible than others e.g. those with no immune systems cannot receive vaccines – thus it is important that we attain high uptake rates so that there is ‘herd protection’.
can you use maths to predict where a desiese will spread o next?
If you could create a team of scientists to work with who would you choose to be on your team?
Who is your favourite superhero? (2 Comments)
Do you think tomatoes should be used as a fruit or carry on being used as a vegetable even though they are fruits?
Would you be able to live a month without any electronics?
do you think there will be a cure for the girl in the freezer in London will be cured
If you were stranded on an island with grain and a chicken, would you feed the chicken so it would produce eggs for a
Do you think it is immoral to alter someone’s genes to prevent any inherited diseases and illnesses from being passed
As our scientific knowledge increases and there is more to learn, how will the education system regarding science
Do you think the bubonic and pneumonic plague was preventable?
Do any of you have tips for upcoming astrophysicists? (1 Comment)
View all answered questions
And the winner is…
Who is your favourite superhero?
The next scientist out is…
Do you have any hidden talents or secret obsessions?
Do any of you have tips for upcoming astrophysicists?